Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.56%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (11.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro would win this match.