Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 35.93%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.1%) and 1-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (13.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.