The United Arab Emirates have one final chance to overtake opponents Vietnam in the World Cup Qualifying Group G table on Tuesday, as the top two meet in Dubai.
Their visitors, meanwhile, will be looking to extend an eight-game unbeaten run which has seen them all but seal progress to the next stage of the Asian qualifying process.
Match preview
Having struggled in the opening stages of World Cup qualifying, the UAE have returned reinvigorated after a year-long break in proceedings, to win all three of their fixtures so far this month.
A 4-0 triumph over Malaysia last week was then followed by a convincing 3-1 win over Thailand to put them within touching distance of the group leaders.
Last time out, the Emirates thrashed Indonesia 5-0 to keep their hopes of reaching the first-ever Middle Eastern finals alive, as prolific striker Ali Mabkhout netted two more goals. In doing so, Mabkhout overtook veteran India forward Sunil Chhetri as the second-highest active goalscorer in international football, behind only Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo.
Having bolstered his phenomenal strike rate at the Indonesians' expense, the Al Jazira sharpshooter can now boast a total of 75 goals from 91 appearances for his nation, while Brazil-born Fabio Lima also struck twice against Group G's bottom side.
A former World Cup finalist as the Netherlands' coach, back in 2010, head coach Bert van Marwijk will be aware that his team now hold their fate in their own hands ahead of one final fixture in the second qualification phase.
It has been a testing period in charge for the former Feyenoord and Australia manager, as he has already been fired by the Emirati FA in December 2019, following defeat to local rivals Qatar in the Gulf Cup. However, some twelve months later, he returned to the dugout - winning five of his six games since.
Now victory against Vietnam, on home soil at the Zabeel Stadium, would earn the UAE passage to the final group stage of qualifiers as group winners. In fact, even a loss or draw against could potentially still send Al Abyad through to the next round as one of the four best second-placed teams across Asia.
Meanwhile, unbeaten after their first seven games in the group, Vietnam are within touching distance of progress and have tightened their grip on top spot since the resumption.
Following a convincing 4-0 win against Indonesia - featuring their third consecutive clean sheet - Park Hang-seo's skilful side cemented their place at the summit with victory over Malaysia last Friday. The Vietnamese sat back and packed their midfield with five men, playing mostly on the counter, and with the score at 1-1 in the 82nd minute, Nguyen Van Toan was tripped in the box; captain Que Ngoc Hai subsequently firing home from the spot.
Including their latest success, the Golden Dragons have drawn twice and won five times to date, so will hope to again escape unscathed as the away side in Dubai.
Perhaps the best side in Southeast Asia, now Vietnam will aim for a repeat of their 2019 win over the UAE in the reverse fixture - to keep dreams of a first global finals burning bright.
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Team News
Following last month's training camp, UAE coach Bert van Marwijk slimmed his squad down to a more workable 24 men, each of whom ply their trade domestically.
Striker Fabio Lima - born in Paraiba, Brazil - has taken to international football with serene ease, notching six goals from eight appearances so far and will join compatriot Caio Canedo Correa in the starting XI.
The imported pair are expected to join Khalfan Mubarak in support of main man Ali Mabkhout in the Emirati attack.
Vietnam's squad, meanwhile, is also comprised entirely of home-based players, and is relatively inexperienced - with only skipper Que Ngoc Hai registering more than 40 caps to date.
However, 35-year-old Bui Tan Truong is set to continue in goal for the Golden Dragons, with both Vu Van Thanh and Phan Van Duc strong contenders to start in midfield.
United Arab Emirates possible starting lineup:
Khasif; Abbas, Abdulrahman, Al Hammadi, Mohamed; Mubarak, Ramadan, Al Hammadi, Lima; Correa, Mabkhout
Vietnam possible starting lineup:
Bui T.T; Do, Bui T.D, Que; Phong, Vu, Phan, Tuan Anh; Quang Hai, Tien Linh, Van Toan
We say: United Arab Emirates 1-2 Vietnam
Though both sides are enjoying a superb streak of form, it is Vietnam who have set the standard in Group G, with some eye-catching performances and displays of resilience when required.
Even home advantage may not be enough for the UAE to overcome an ever-improving side, so they may have to rely on finishing as a 'best runner-up' to stay in contention for a place at neighbours' Qatar's festival of football next year.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 45.8%. A win for Vietnam had a probability of 28.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Vietnam win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that United Arab Emirates would win this match.
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