Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 80.47%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for Chornomorets Odesa had a probability of 6.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.03%) and 1-0 (10.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.31%), while for a Chornomorets Odesa win it was 0-1 (2.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.