Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 76.75%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Obolon Kyiv had a probability of 7.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.87%) and 3-0 (11.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.37%), while for a Obolon Kyiv win it was 0-1 (3.18%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.