Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chornomorets Odesa win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Obolon Kyiv had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chornomorets Odesa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Obolon Kyiv win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Chornomorets Odesa in this match.