Turkey will head to Montenegro on Tuesday night knowing that a victory would be enough for them to secure a top-two finish in their World Cup 2022 qualification section.
The visitors are currently second in Group G, level on points with third-placed Norway, while Montenegro are down in fourth and will finish in that position regardless of what happens on the final matchday.
Match preview
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Montenegro have won three, drawn three and lost three of their eight matches in the group, which has left them in fourth position on 12 points, six points clear of fifth-placed Latvia.
Miodrag Radulovic's side are six points behind second-placed Turkey, though, so their wait to qualify for their first-ever World Cup will go on until at least the 2026 competition.
Montenegro looked to be heading for a home defeat on Saturday, as a double from Memphis Depay had allowed the Netherlands to take a 2-0 lead in the early stages of the second half in Podgorica.
However, the home side had other ideas, with Ilija Vukotic halving the deficit in the 82nd minute of the contest before Nikola Vujnovic levelled the scores in the 86th minute to prevent Holland from booking their spot at next year's World Cup with one match to spare.
Montenegro will now be attempting to dent Turkey's hopes of being present at the tournament, and they did hold their opponents here to a 2-2 draw in the reverse match back in September.
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Turkey, meanwhile, will enter this contest off the back of a thumping 6-0 win over Gibraltar on Saturday, with the hosts, as expected, proving to be far too strong for their opponents in Istanbul.
The success moved the Crescent-Stars above Norway into second position in the group, and a win over Montenegro on Tuesday would be enough to secure either first or second.
Turkey, as mentioned, are just two points behind the Netherlands in first, so top spot, and an automatic spot at next year's World Cup, is still open for Stefan Kuntz's side, but they would need Holland to drop points against Norway in what is a huge game in Rotterdam.
The Crescent-Stars have not actually been present at the World Cup since finishing third in 2002, but they did compete at Euro 2020, failing to advance past the group stage, losing all three of their matches.
Kuntz's team have not always been at their best in this section, but a total of five wins, three draws and one defeat from nine matches has left them second, and they would be a team to be feared in the playoffs.
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Team News
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Vujnovic was one of two Montenegro players to score off the bench against the Netherlands on Saturday, and the 24-year-old might now have earned himself a spot in the starting side for this match.
Uros Durdevic is still yet to find the back of the net for his country, but the Sporting Gijon forward is again expected to be given the nod in the final third of the field here.
Rubin Kazan's Sead Haksabanovic is also likely to retain his spot in the XI, while Atletico Madrid's Stefan Savic is expected to earn his 61st cap in the middle of the defence.
As for Turkey, Halil Dervisoglu made it four goals in eight caps for his country with a brace against Gibraltar on Saturday, and the 21-year-old should retain his spot in the side here.
Burak Yilmaz is a certainty to lead the line, but Baris Yilmaz is likely to drop down to the bench to allow Kenan Karaman to come into the starting side.
Hakan Calhanoglu will feature in central midfield for the visitors, while Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Caglar Soyuncu and Caner Erkin should again line up at the back.
Montenegro possible starting lineup:
Sarkic; Vukcevic, Vujacic, Savic, Tomasevic, Radunovic; Vujnovic, Jankovic, Haksabanovic, Osmajic; Durdevic
Turkey possible starting lineup:
Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Soyuncu, Erkin; Kokcu, Calhanoglu; Karaman, Dervisoglu, Akturkoglu; Burak Yilmaz
We say: Montenegro 1-2 Turkey
Turkey will be guaranteed a top-two finish in the group if they win on Tuesday, and we are expecting the visitors to get the job done. Montenegro will have been boosted by their late draw against the Netherlands, but it was an energy-sapping affair, and Turkey's superior quality should just shine through.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 50.84%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Montenegro had a probability of 21.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.79%) and 1-2 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for a Montenegro win it was 1-0 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.
