Nations League Gameweek 2
Sep 28, 2026 7.45pm
1
4
HT : 0 3
FT Atatürk Spor Kompleksi Matlı Stadyumu
  • Can Uzun 38' yellowcard
  • Barış Alper Yılmaz 47' goal
  • Barış Alper Yılmaz 54' yellowcard
  • Ozan Kabak 72' yellowcard
  • goal Alessandro Bastoni 9'
  • goal Davide Frattesi 22'
  • goal Michael Kayode 27'
  • goal Pio Esposito 50'

Turkey vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Turkey

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Turkey 0 - 1 France

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Italy 0 - 2 Belgium

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 45.43%. A win for Turkey had a probability of 33.18% and a draw had a probability of 21.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Turkey win was 2-1 (7.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.53%).

Result

Turkey 33.18% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 21.42%
Italy 45.43% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.81% ▼ (-0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.71% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 17.29% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 62.96% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 37.04% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 39.36% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 3.5 60.64% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 24.31% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 4.5 75.69% ▼ (-0.05)

First Half Winner

Turkey 23.15% ▼ (-0.22)
Draw 36.67% ▼ (-0.13)
Italy 40.18% ▲ (+0.34)

Team To Score First

Turkey 41.72% ▲ (+0.22)
No Goal 4.06%
Italy 54.22% ▼ (-0.22)

Corners

Over 8 60.93% ▼ (-0.08)
Equal 8 10.78% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 8 28.29% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 9 49.73% ▼ (-0.08)
Equal 9 11.2% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 9 39.07% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 10.5 39% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 10.5 61% ▲ (+0.08)

Turkey Goals

Over 1.5 39.14%
Under 1.5 60.86%
Over 2.5 17.98% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 82.02% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 6.58% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.42% ▼ (-0.02)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5 77.36% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 22.64% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 1.5 48.55% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 51.45% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 2.5 24.26% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 2.5 75.74% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 3.5 9.62% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 90.38% ▼ (-0.03)

Score analysis

Turkey 33.19%
Draw 21.41%
Italy 45.44%
Turkey
2-1 @ 7.63% ▼ (-0.03)
1-0 @ 5.55%
2-0 @ 3.97%
3-1 @ 3.93% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 3.01%
3-0 @ 2.78% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 6.32% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 33.19%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.53% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.88% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.06%
3-3 @ 1.68% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 21.41%
Italy
1-2 @ 9.16%
0-1 @ 7.72% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 6.24% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 5.24% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 4.04% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.68% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 9.36% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 45.44%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
Jun 4, 2024 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
  • Riccardo Orsolini 30' yellowcard
  • Gianluca Mancini 90'+1' yellowcard
International Friendlies
Mar 29, 2022 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Cengiz Under 4' goal
  • Serdar Dursun 83' goal
  • Mert Muldur 86' yellowcard
  • goal Bryan Cristante 35'
  • goal Giacomo Raspadori 39'
  • yellowcard Nicolo Zaniolo 45'+1'
  • goal Giacomo Raspadori 70'
European Championship
Jun 11, 2021 8.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Olimpico
  • Caglar Soyuncu 88' yellowcard
  • Halil Dervisoglu 90' yellowcard
  • goal Merih Demiral 53' (OG)
  • goal Ciro Immobile 66'
  • goal Lorenzo Insigne 79'