World Cup 2026: Can Herve Renard still turn Tunisia into the miracle story of the 2026 World Cup?

Who could have predicted such a scenario? After the historic 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Sweden in their opening fixture at the 2026 World Cup, Tunisia have sacked Sabri Lamouchi and handed the reins to Herve Renard. The question now is whether a miracle is still possible for the Eagles of Carthage to secure a historic place in the round of 32.

A managerial change mid-tournament is exceptionally rare, even more so after just one match. But the scale of the collapse left the Tunisian Football Federation with little choice. The question is straightforward: can the man in the white shirt still save the Eagles of Carthage?

A squad in crisis

Beyond the scoreline, it was the nature of the performance against Sweden that alarmed Tunisian officials.

Individual errors were rife. Goalkeeper Abdelmouhib Chamakh was directly at fault for the first two goals conceded, while captain Ellyes Skhiri — normally so reliable in international football — endured a dreadful evening, gifting a goal to the Isak-Gyokeres partnership through an avoidable loss of possession.

Defensively, Tunisia looked capable of conceding with every opposition attack. Going forward, the returns were equally bleak, with just 0.83 expected goals.

Perhaps most concerning is the psychological damage. Having already suffered a 5-0 defeat to Belgium in a pre-tournament friendly, the Eagles of Carthage have now conceded 10 goals in two matches. Confidence within the group is at rock bottom.

Lamouchi: The end of a troubled tenure

Sabri Lamouchi's tenure, which began after Tunisia's last-16 elimination at the Africa Cup of Nations, never truly took off.

Between criticism over his past decision to represent France rather than Tunisia as a player, the controversial presence of his son within the delegation, and accusations of federation interference in squad selection, his spell was dogged by off-field issues from the outset.

On the sporting front, his gamble to undertake a deep squad overhaul appeared interesting in theory. The former Ivory Coast manager had dropped several established names in an attempt to launch a new cycle. But the results failed to follow.

Renard inherits a far deeper problem

Herve Renard's arrival could bring experience and leadership to a dressing room desperately in need of both.

A two-time Africa Cup of Nations winner with Zambia and Ivory Coast, with additional stints in charge of Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the France women's team, the French coach is one of international football's finest man-managers.

But he also inherits a squad in crisis.

For years, Tunisia compensated for a less abundant talent pool than their neighbours through tactical discipline, the quality of their domestic academy system and a culture of rigour. Today, the gap appears to have widened significantly. While Morocco, Algeria, Senegal and Ivory Coast have progressed, the Eagles of Carthage have lost ground.

The assessment made by Hannibal Mejbri after the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations remains more relevant than ever: Tunisian football appears to need a deep and honest examination of its direction.

An 11.39% chance of qualification: is a miracle still possible?

Despite having just an 11.39% probability of qualifying according to the Opta supercomputer, everything remains mathematically possible for Tunisia at this World Cup. Two matches remain — against Japan on Sunday morning and the Netherlands on the night of 25-26 June — although the Eagles of Carthage will not enter either fixture as favourites.

To reach the four points that would likely be required — three probably would not suffice given their goal difference of minus four — Renard must first accomplish what he does best: restore belief in a traumatised group.

Tunisia's decline extends far beyond the confines of this World Cup, and Renard has not been brought in to solve every problem in Tunisian football within a week.

He has been brought in to deliver a shock to the system. And in that department, few managers on the planet possess a more convincing track record.