The New York Red Bulls have an opportunity to start the Major League Soccer regular season at 2-0 for the first time since 2017 when they travel to BMO Field to face Toronto on Saturday.
TFC scored a late first-half goal in their opener last week, drawing Dallas 1-1, while the New York press overwhelmed the San Jose Earthquakes in a 3-1 victory.
Match preview
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The debut fixture for Bob Bradley as manager of Toronto had everything one might expect for a side finding a new identity, with some sharp, connected passing at times, mixed in with some sloppy play without the ball.
For a team looking to regain their confidence and some new players aiming to make an impact, it seems as though a draw was a fair result.
While going behind after nine minutes was not an ideal scenario, one thing that we saw from this group last Saturday, which was rarely evident in 2021, was a strong reaction from the players after conceding, as The Reds only won one match last season when allowing the opening goal.
Bradley is calling on his team to put together some quicker and more fluid movements with the ball, finding the right passes to move up together rather than playing backwards, which we saw in stretches against Dallas.
When TFC play as a cohesive unit, they have the potential to do some damage, as they rarely rely on individual brilliance to carry the day.
Combination play in the middle of the field while being aggressive and sending numbers forward into the box seems to be two areas of focus that we can expect them to continue working on as the year continues.
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New York began their 2022 campaign on the right foot, scoring three goals in a regular-season encounter for only the second time since October 2020.
Gerhard Struber's side were able to find the right moments to press The Quakes, showing plenty of intensity in both halves, although at times it looked a little too easy for them to bring the ball up through the middle of the field.
Despite having only 31% of the possession, it seems as though this young group are learning how to play the high press more effectively than they did in the first half of last season.
Their potency in the final third is something that we rarely saw down the stretch of 2021, but their defensive prowess was equally impressive last weekend as it was in the second half of last year, holding San Jose to only two shots on target.
Dating back to their previous campaign, the Red Bulls have suffered only one defeat in 12 successive regular-season affairs and are being touted as a dark horse team to watch out for in 2022.
The club from the Tri-State area have the potential to put opposing teams under pressure and at the same time are positionally sound at the back, with some valuable assets on the defence now fully healed.
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Team News
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Jonathan Osorio scored his first of the season last weekend for The Reds as he started the move along the top of the box before feeding Alejandro Pozuelo, who helped it onto Jacob Shaffelburg, as his cross was flicked on by Jesus Jimenez, into the path of the Canadian midfielder, who finished it off.
TFC thought they had earned a penalty in the second half against Dallas when captain Michael Bradley played through Pozuelo, who was taken down, only to have the call reversed by VAR.
Three teenagers were inserted into the starting lineup for opening day, including Jayden Nelson, Deandre Kerr and Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty, who was named to the MLS Team of the Week, completing 72 passes, along with five tackles and a team-high three interceptions against The Toros.
Goals from Patryk Klimala, Omir Fernandez and Tom Barlow helped lift the Red Bulls to victory in their opener, while defender Aaron Long played the full 90 minutes after missing most of last year with a torn Achilles tendon.
While the presence of Long provided a big boost, there are still a few players who are unlikely to see the field this weekend as Andres Reyes and Wikelman Carmona have foot injuries, while the team is still trying to sort out the visa issues of Luquinhas and Tom Edwards.
Homegrown players Daniel Edelman and Serge Ngoma made their MLS debuts, with Ngoma equalling the club record set by former midfielder Eddie Gaven as the youngest player to feature for the team, at 16 years of age.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Shaffelburg, Mavinga, Salcedo, Marshall-Rutty; Osorio, Bradley; Okello, Pozuelo, Kerr; Achara
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; D. Nealis, S. Nealis, Long; Tolkin, Clark, Amaya, Fernandez; Ngoma, Klimala, Casseres
We say: Toronto 1-1 New York Red Bulls
Toronto showed flashes of brilliance in their opening fixture, and we expect them to come out more determined while showing more consistency as a team.
The Red Bulls seem pretty content to wait and bide their time, picking the right moments to press, which should be enough to earn them another point on the road against a young side still learning what it takes to win as a team.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-0 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
