Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 55.19%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 20.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.19%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-0 (6.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.