Supercopa de Espana | Semi-Finals

Jan 11, 2024 at 7pm UK

KSU Soccer Stadium

Barcelona
2 - 0
Osasuna

Lewandowski (59'), Yamal (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Catena (32'), Munoz (39'), Arnaiz (56'), Arrasate (81')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Barcelona

All competitions

Last Game: Barbastro 2-3 Barcelona
Sunday, January 7 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

Osasuna

All competitions

Last Game: Castellon 0-1 Osasuna
Sunday, January 7 at 3pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 59.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 19.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.47%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-2 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.

Result
Barcelona	Draw	Osasuna
59.77% ( 0.24)	20.69% ( -0.05)	19.53% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 58.75% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.95% (

-0.04)

38.04% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.69% (

-0.05)

60.3% (

0.04)

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.58% (

0.05)

12.41% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.69% (

0.11)

38.31% (

-0.12)

Osasuna Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.07% (

-0.21)

32.92% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.5% (

-0.23)

69.49% (

0.23)

Score Analysis

Barcelona 59.77%

Osasuna 19.53%

Draw 20.69%

Barcelona	Draw	Osasuna
2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.99% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.95% Total : 59.77%	1-1 @ 9.47% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.09% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 20.69%	1-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 19.53%