Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Kayserispor had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Kayserispor win was 1-0 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.