With their survival destiny still in their own hands, Arminia Bielefeld travel to Stuttgart for the final day of the Bundesliga season on Saturday afternoon.
The hosts, meanwhile, are likely consigned to a mid-table finish, but it is not impossible for them to push for the seventh and final European spot this weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
Stuttgart's first season back where they belong has been undeniably successful, and despite a wobbly period in April with four consecutive defeats, Pellegrino Matarazzo's men can now aim to end the season with three successive wins under their belts.
This week's hosts followed up their 2-1 win over Augsburg with victory by the same scoreline over Borussia Monchengladbach, who struck first through Lars Stindl before second-half goals from Wataru Endo and Sasa Kalajdzic - the latter's 16th of the season - secured all three points for Stuttgart.
The ninth-placed Roten can only finish as low as 10th and can potentially qualify for the Europa Conference League as they sit two points behind Union Berlin, but other results would have to go their way should they have a chance of waving the German flag high in continental competition next term.
With five victories from their last eight on home soil, Matarazzo's side had to wait a long time to produce the goods at their headquarters, but it has been worth the wait and they have only failed to find the back of the net in one of their 16 home league games this season.
Incredibly, Borussia Dortmund are the only other team in the division to go into the final matchday following back-to-back wins, and while it may be too little too late for their European aspirations, a Kalajdzic-led side will still expect to end the season on a high note against their former 2. Bundesliga opponents.
© Reuters
Having enjoyed promotion alongside Stuttgart from the 2. Bundesliga last season, the onus is now on Arminia to ensure that they remain alongside their final-day opponents in the top flight for the new season, but they are still in control of their own destiny.
Frank Kramer's solid start to life in the dugout continued with a 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim on matchday 33 - during which Andrej Kramaric's opener was cancelled out by Andreas Voglsammer's free kick, and Arminia remain outside of the bottom three before the games kick off on Saturday.
The 15th-placed visitors are one point clear of Werder Bremen in the relegation playoff place and two above Koln in the automatic relegation spots, so no matter what happens in their adversaries' fixtures, Arminia will secure a second season in the big time with all three points this weekend.
Kramer has overseen just one defeat from his last seven games at the helm, with his side keeping a respectable four clean sheets in that run, and the visitors will certainly be relying on their rearguard and much-admired goalkeeper Stefan Ortega Moreno to keep Kalajdzic at bay.
Arminia did ease to a 3-0 triumph over Stuttgart when the sides met earlier in the season, but last season's corresponding fixture in the second division ended with a share of the spoils in a 1-1 stalemate.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Stuttgart goalscorer Endo picked up his fifth yellow card of the season after netting against Monchengladbach and will miss the final day of the season, while Arsenal loanee Konstantinos Mavropanos suffered a muscular injury last time out and is unlikely to recover in time.
Nicolas Gonzalez, Tanguy Coulibaly, Mateo Klimowicz and Orel Mangala all feature on the hosts' lengthy injury list, while highly-rated prospect Silas Wamangituka will spend a while recovering from a knee operation.
Pascal Stenzel should deputise for Mavropanos as Gonzalo Castro - who will leave the club at the end of the season - plays his final game for Stuttgart in place of the suspended Endo.
Arminia will be forced into a defensive alteration after Anderson Lucoqui was cautioned for the fifth time this season, so Jacob Laursen should come back in for his first taste of Bundesliga action since March.
The visitors have no selection concerns otherwise, unlike many of the injury-hit teams around them, but it remains to be seen if Reinhold Yabo and Sergio Cordova will be fit enough to return from their COVID-related absences.
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Stenzel, Anton, Kempf; Massimo, Karazor, Castro, Sosa; Forster, Thommy; Kalajdzic
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Pieper, Nilsson, Laursen; Prietl, Maier; Doan, Okugawa, Voglsammer; Klos
We say: Stuttgart 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia's staunch defence has been coupled with a somewhat toothless attack at times, with the 24 goals that the visitors can boast representing the worst tally in the division.
Their rearguard's resolve will also be tested to the limit by Kalajdzic, whose own side are still pushing for Europe with just 90 minutes of the season left to go, but we ultimately expect this battle to end all square as Arminia pray for their Bundesliga status.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 53.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 23.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
