Europa League Gameweek 3
Oct 22, 2026 5.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Merkur Arena
  • Oumar Diakité 13' goal
  • Oumar Diakité 32' yellowcard
  • Luca Weinhandl 63' yellowcard
  • Arjan Malic 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Angel Gomes 24'
  • yellowcard Amine Gouiri 80'
  • yellowcard Bamo Meïté 90'+1'

Sturm Graz vs Marseille - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Sep 16, 2026 8.00pm
Sturm Graz 0 - 0 Rennes

Marseille

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.03%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 36.29% and a draw had a probability of 22.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.07%) and 0-2 (5.79%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result

Sturm Graz 36.29% ▲ (+0.14)
Draw 22.68%
Marseille 41.03% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.34% ▼ (-0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.58%
Under 1.5 18.42%
Over 2.5 60.44% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 39.56% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 38.15% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 61.85% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 4.5 23.81% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 4.5 76.19% ▲ (+0.01)

First Half Winner

Sturm Graz 28.08%
Draw 36.43%
Marseille 35.49%

Team To Score First

Sturm Graz 44.28% ▼ (-0.01)
No Goal 4.55% ▲ (+0.01)
Marseille 51.17%

Corners

Over 8 59.97%
Equal 8 10.64%
Under 8 29.39%
Over 9 48.94%
Equal 9 11.03%
Under 9 40.03%
Over 10.5 38.4%
Under 10.5 61.6%

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 1.5 40.95% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 1.5 59.05% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 2.5 18.22% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 2.5 81.78% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 3.5 7.37% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 92.63% ▼ (-0.04)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5 73.77% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 0.5 26.23% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 1.5 44.76% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 1.5 55.24% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 2.5 21.43% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 78.57% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 3.5 8.62% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 91.38% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Sturm Graz 36.3%
Draw 22.68%
Marseille 41.03%
Sturm Graz
2-1 @ 7.94% ▲ (+0.02)
1-0 @ 6.81% ▲ (+0.03)
2-0 @ 5.09% ▲ (+0.04)
3-1 @ 3.74% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.93%
3-0 @ 2.65% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 7.14% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 36.3%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.26% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.11% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.55% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.68%
Marseille
1-2 @ 8.5% ▼ (-0.02)
0-1 @ 7.07%
0-2 @ 5.79% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 4.49% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 3.59% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 3.2% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 8.39% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 41.03%