Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 29.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 1-2 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Kansas City would win this match.