Southampton will welcome Burnley to St Mary's for Easter Sunday's Premier League encounter with the hosts hoping to claim their first top-flight victory since January 4.
The Clarets, meanwhile, are looking to secure back-to-back away league wins for the first time since July 2020.
Match preview
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After an underwhelming start to 2021, Ralph Hasenhuttl's only saving grace has been Southampton's FA Cup run and their hopes of lifting their first major trophy since 1976 are still alive.
The Saints advanced to the semi-finals of the competition courtesy of a 3-0 success at south coast rivals Bournemouth just before the international break, with a brace from Nathan Redmond and a strike from Moussa Djenepo booking their trip to Wembley later this month.
Southampton now turn their attention back to the Premier League, where they currently sit 14th in the table and seven points above the relegation zone.
Since beating Liverpool in their first league game of 2021, the Saints have lost 10 of their last 12 in the Premier League, picking up fewer points this calendar year than any other top-flight side.
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Defensive frailties have been a major concern for Hasenhuttl's side this campaign, particularly over the last few months. Southampton have conceded 51 Premier League goals this season – the second highest in the division – but they have an expected goals against tally of 38.6, meaning they have conceded around 12 goals more than expected based on the quality of chances they have faced; this is the biggest such difference in the top-flight this term.
The Saints have only won three of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Burnley, including a 1-0 victory in September's reverse fixture, which ended a run of seven league games without a win against the Clarets.
One or two more victories from their final 11 league matches are possibly required if they wish to survive, and securing all three points at St Mary's on Sunday would ease the pressure on Hasenhuttl's team heading down the home straight.
Likewise for Burnley, a couple more wins from their remaining Premier League games should all but confirm their top-flight status for the fifth successive season.
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The Clarets claimed three crucial points away at Everton just before the international break, with first-half goals from Chris Wood and Dwight McNeil securing a 2-1 victory at Goodison Park.
Sean Dyche's side are level on points and have the same goal difference as Southampton, although they sit one place below them in 15th as the Saints have scored 14 more than the Clarets.
Goals have been hard to come by for Burnley this season, finding the net 22 times from their 29 league matches; only the bottom two, West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield United, have scored fewer.
However, 50% of their 10 away league goals this season have been scored in their last three games on the road, with the 2-1 win against Everton and a 3-0 victory at Crystal Palace.
Burnley have won just four of their 28 away league matches against Southampton – drawing 11 and losing the other 13 – although two of those victories were claimed in their last three visits to St Mary's, winning 1-0 in November 2017 and 2-1 in February 2020.
Victory on the south coast this Sunday could see Dyche's team climb as high as 13th in the table, 10 points clear of the bottom three and easing any potential fears of a third relegation in 12 years.
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Team News
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Hassenhuttl has confirmed that Danny Ings and Theo Walcott returned to training over the international break and could be in contention to feature.
Southampton's only new injury concern is to captain James Ward-Prowse, who missed England's midweek victory over Poland with a calf problem and is now a doubt for Sunday.
The likes of Djenepo, Takumi Minamino, Che Adams and Stuart Armstrong, who were all away on international duty, have returned unscathed.
Midfielders Oriol Romeu (broken ankle) and William Smallbone (knee) as well as forward Michael Obafemi (muscle) are three players who will miss this weekend's match through injury.
As for Burnley, they remain without striker Ashley Barnes due to a thigh injury, while Robbie Brady suffered a recurrence of his Achilles problem in the Republic of Ireland's friendly with Qatar and will miss the trip to the south coast.
Charlie Taylor and Jack Cork are both doubts and will be assessed ahead of kickoff, but the match may come too soon for both players, who are recovering from respective thigh and hamstring injuries.
Striker Wood, who is the club's top goalscorer this season with six, is set to remain up front alongside either Jay Rodriguez or Matej Vydra.
Southampton possible starting lineup:
Forster; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Vestergaard, Bertrand; Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Diallo, Djenepo; Adams, Ings
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Pieters; Gudmundsson, Brownhill, Westwood, McNeil; Vydra, Wood
We say: Southampton 1-1 Burnley
Burnley have displayed their resilience in recent matches against top-10 sides such as Everton, Leicester City and Arsenal and will hope to cause problems for the hosts this weekend, as they did at St Mary's last season.
Southampton are desperate to get back to winning ways in the Premier League, but we feel that Sunday's encounter could finish as a score draw.
Top tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 46.73%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 26.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
