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Southampton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 18
Jan 11, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
St Mary's Stadium
Brentford logo

Southampton
4 - 1
Brentford

Bednarek (5'), Fernandez (37' og.), Broja (49'), Adams (70')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Janelt (23')
Toney (45+2')

Preview: Southampton vs. Brentford - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Premier League clash between Southampton and Brentford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fresh from booking their spots in the fourth round of the FA Cup, Southampton and Brentford reconvene for Premier League action at St Mary's on Tuesday night.

The Saints saw off Swansea City 3-2 after extra time at the weekend, while Thomas Frank's side ran out convincing 4-1 winners over Port Vale.


Match preview

Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl before the match on January 8, 2022© Reuters

In spite of Yan Valery's sending off within only 30 minutes of the contest - which highlighted the right-back's inexperience according to Ralph Hasenhuttl - the 10 men of Southampton ultimately ploughed through to dump Swansea out of the FA Cup on Saturday.

Only Nathan Redmond and Joel Piroe made the net ripple within the first 90 minutes, and Swansea took a 2-1 lead in the 94th minute via Jan Bednarek's own goal, but Mohamed Elyounoussi and the forgotten man Shane Long ensured that the day was Southampton's at the Liberty Stadium.

Southampton will learn the fate of their fourth-round opponents later on Sunday, but attention now turns to their first Premier League game of 2022, and Hasenhuttl can take some confidence from the fact that his side went unbeaten in their last three top-flight games of 2021.

However, a streak of results including one win and four draws from their last eight in the Premier League has left Southampton continuing to look over their shoulder, as the 14th-placed Saints are 10 points clear of 18th-placed Burnley having played two games more.

Southampton's resilience on home soil has seen them string together a six-game unbeaten streak at St Mary's in the Premier League - although they have drawn a league-high six on familiar territory this term - and Brentford are certainly no pushovers.

Brentford manager Thomas Frank reacts on January 8, 2022© Reuters

While Southampton needed 120 minutes to make it past their lower-league opposition at the weekend, Brentford had no such difficulties, as Bryan Mbeumo produced quite the substitute cameo to help see off Port Vale by four goals to one.

Marcus Forss's 28th-minute strike ensured that the Bees would take a slender lead into the half-time interval, but Mbeumo would take just 25 minutes to complete his hat-trick after being introduced just after the hour mark, with Kian Harratt bagging a consolation for Port Vale.

Mbeumo will certainly hope to see his three-goal showing at Vale Park translate into better fortunes in the Premier League, with Brentford currently sat in 12th place - two spots and two points better off than their upcoming opponents.

Frank's men opened their Premier League account for 2022 with a smash-and-grab victory over Aston Villa, but results away from home have been hard to come by, as Brentford have failed to win any of their last five top-flight matches on the road - conceding at least two goals on each occasion.

This tie was originally meant to take place in December before a COVID-19 outbreak ravaged the Brentford squad, but the Bees managed to claim a 2-0 win at St Mary's in the second round of last season's EFL Cup.

Southampton Premier League form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D

Southampton form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W

Brentford Premier League form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W

Brentford form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Southampton's Yan Valery is shown a red card by referee Simon Hooper on January 8, 2022© Reuters

Southampton are in a bit of a predicament at right-back following Valery's red card and subsequent suspension, with Valentino Livramento still struggling with a knee injury and Kyle Walker-Peters testing positive for coronavirus.

Mohammed Salisu is back from a ban of his own and could fill in if necessary, but Moussa Djenepo is away on Africa Cup of Nations duty, and Will Smallbone, Alex McCarthy and Thierry Small are all absentee concerns for Hasenhuttl.

Long's winner at the weekend is unlikely to see him rewarded with a starting role at St Mary's, but Adam Armstrong will expect to have a strong chance of returning up top alongside Che Adams, who has recovered from COVID-19.

As for Brentford, centre-back Kristoffer Ajer lasted just over an hour on his comeback from injury and came out unscathed, but Frank is without Frank Onyeka due to AFCON.

David Raya, Charlie Goode, Mathias Jorgensen, Josh Dasilva and Julian Jeanvier remain sidelined due to injury, but Frank is confident that Sergi Canos and Mathias Jensen will both be fit to play.

There is a bit more doubt over the availability of Rico Henry, but Aston Villa hero Mads Roerslev - who bagged a goal and assist against the Lions - will not concede his place easily either way.

Southampton possible starting lineup:
Forster; Salisu, Bednarek, Stephens, Perraud; Redmond, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Elyounoussi; A. Armstrong, Broja

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Fernandez; Ajer, Jansson, Pinnock; Canos, Norgaard, Baptiste, Jensen, Roerslev; Mbeumo, Toney


SM words green background

We say: Southampton 2-2 Brentford

Southampton's solid home form coupled with Brentford's dire set of recent results on the road certainly points towards a Saints win, but Hasenhuttl's side have developed an affinity for stalemates.

With the Bees boasting several more first-XI regulars well-rested from the weekend and Mbeumo seeking to kick on after his FA Cup hat-trick, we see another high-scoring encounter ending with the spoils shared at St Mary's.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:474838:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect13178:
Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 36.2%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 35.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.79%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Southampton vs Brentford

Southampton
55.9%
Draw
25.9%
Brentford
18.2%
297
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 Brentford manager Thomas Frank applauds fans after the match, December 29, 2021
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