Following one of their best results of recent times, Malta visit Slovenia on Saturday, as they seek another unlikely win in Group H of European World Cup Qualifying.
While the visitors are ranked 177th in the world at present, their hosts are expected to be among the contenders for a top-two place at the end of the process - but have some catching-up to do.
Match preview
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Slovenia welcomed Slovakia to Ljubljana on Wednesday evening, with both nations having endured mixed starts to their qualifying campaign for Qatar 2022.
As the Slovenes had suffered back-to-back away defeats, they were eager to make the most of home advantage at Stadion Stozice, but could only pick up a point following a tightly-contested 1-1 draw.
Empoli full-back Petar Stojanovic latched onto his fellow Italy-based colleague Josip Ilicic's pass to level the scores before half-time, but the hosts were unable to find a way past Marek Rodak in the Slovakian goal with their limited opportunities.
Losses in Cyprus and Russia had already put Matjaz Kek's men on the back foot in terms of competing with Slovakia and the Russians for a potential second place behind Croatia, which would be good enough to seal a playoff place.
Now, they seek a valuable three points in search of their third-ever appearance at a global finals, and with Croatia to come next week, victory is all but essential if they want to keep that dream alive.
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Collecting just one point from their first trio of games in the spring, Malta hosted their fellow island nation Cyprus in midweek amid low expectations, but with a little help from a one-man advantage, pulled off a shock victory.
Their fellow islanders travelled to Ta'Qali in midweek fully expecting to secure maximum points, but they left empty-handed and with their tails between their legs; being handed a 3-0 thumping by a dominant Maltese side.
Controlling possession throughout, they certainly made the most of their supremacy, with the all three goals coming in 11 minutes either side of half-time - not long after the visitors' Constantinos Soteriou was dismissed.
After starting their campaign with a game against Russia, which ended in a 3-1 defeat, Devis Mangia's men went on to take an early two-goal lead away to Slovakia, only for their hosts to pull level before the final whistle. Croatia then brushed them aside with a dominant 3-0 win in Zagreb, before two post-season friendly matches saw them beaten by both Northern Ireland and Kosovo.
In all, Malta had failed to win any of their previous six games in all competitions before Wednesday's unexpected success, but Mangia's plan to gather all his available troops for 10 days before this latest triple-header appears to have paid off.
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Team News
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A number of Malta players were ruled out of this international period for a variety of reasons, as midfielders Matthew Guillaumier, Bjorn Kristensen and Luke Gambin are all unavailable to Devis Mangia, while goalkeeper Matthew Calleja Cremona is also out of action.
In their absence, brothers Joseph Mbong and Paul Mbong are likely to start in a 3-4-2-1 formation for the away side, after the former scored one of Malta's three goals against Cyprus in midweek.
If selected, the siblings will support either current incumbent Luke Montebello or Frosinone teenager Alexander Satariano in attack.
For Slovenia, meanwhile, new Middlesbrough signing Andraz Sporar featured in their forward line as a substitute last time out, but could now replace 18-year-old Benjamin Sesko up front.
As ever, captain Jan Oblak starts behind a back four led by Ferencvaros centre-back Miha Blazic, which has conceded only six times in their last 12 outings.
Slovenia possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Stojanovic, Blazic, Balkovec, Jurcevic; Lovric, Bijol, Kurtic, Zajc; Ilicic, Sporar
Malta possible starting lineup:
Bonello; Shaw, Pepe, Borg; Attard, Pisani, Teuma, Camenzuli; J. Mbong, P. Mbong; Satariano
We say: Slovenia 2-0 Malta
Though their visitors are on a high from a fine midweek win, Slovenia are tough opponents to get past at the back and are motivated by the need of maximum points to stay in the race for Qatar.
Experienced campaigners such as Sporar and Ilicic will have the nous to take care of business in the final third too, so Matjaz Kek's men are bound for victory ahead of the daunting trip to Croatia.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 61.47%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Malta had a probability of 13.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.14%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.21%), while for a Malta win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Slovenia in this match.
