Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 67.47%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Japan Women had a probability of 13.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.05%), while for a Japan Women win it was 0-1 (4.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.