Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan Women win with a probability of 73.57%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Australia Women had a probability of 10.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan Women win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.88%) and 3-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.71%), while for an Australia Women win it was 0-1 (3.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan Women would win this match.