Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Australia Women had a probability of 37.54% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.15%) and 0-2 (5.54%). The likeliest Australia Women win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for USA Women in this match.