Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan Women win with a probability of 87.32%. A draw had a probability of 8.7% and a win for Nigeria Women had a probability of 4.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan Women win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 4-0 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.04%), while for a Nigeria Women win it was 1-2 (1.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan Women would win this match.