Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan Women win with a probability of 46.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Colombia Women had a probability of 25.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan Women win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.36%) and 1-2 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.82%), while for a Colombia Women win it was 1-0 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan Women would win this match.