Following their promotion from the second tier last season, Rayo Vallecano face a tough start to life back in La Liga, as they make the trip to Sevilla in the opening game on Sunday.
Sunday's hosts achieved a top-four finish for the second straight campaign last season, earning Champions League football, while their visitors made a return to the top flight after winning the Segunda Division playoffs last year.
Match preview
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Following a fourth-placed finish in the 2019-20 season, Sevilla headed into last season with the hopes of once again earning a spot in the top four.
Julen Lopetegui's side had a mixed start to the season, dropping to 11th spot after eight games, but they quickly found more consistency to climb the table.
Los Hispalenses broke into the top four in December, and other than in the week after a draw with Real Betis, they would not drop out of the Champions League places.
The season also brought about an impressive continental campaign, as they advanced out of a difficult Champions League group thanks to pairs of wins over Rennes and Krasnodar and a draw with eventual winners Chelsea.
While they eventually lost 5-4 on aggregate to German giants Borussia Dortmund in the round of 16, Lopetegui's men gave an impressive account of themselves, and their second straight fourth-placed finish means they will have another chance in Europe this season.
A strong second half to the campaign, including seven straight wins after the turn of the year and five consecutive victories in April, saw them race away from the chasing pack, eventually finishing 15 points clear of fifth place, while they only dropped completely out of contention for the title in the final month of the season, ending nine points behind league winners Atletico Madrid and just two points behind Barcelona.
After that strong showing, Los Hispalenses will be optimistic for the upcoming season, as they look to establish themselves in the top four once again, and they will have their sights set on a winning start on Sunday.
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They take on a Rayo Vallecano side who return to the top flight after winning promotion last season, and will be desperate to avoid the drop.
Rayo Vallecano had a mixed first half of last season, bouncing around the top half of the Spanish second tier, and occupying fourth place at the half-way point.
While they stood a strong chance of a top-two finish at that stage, Andoni Iraola's side would drop out of contention, eventually having to battle for the final playoff spot.
Los Vallecanos dropped out of the playoff places with three games of the season left to play, but back-to-back victories saw them regain sixth spot, keeping their promotion hopes alive.
Iraola's side met Leganes in the playoff semi-finals, and a 3-0 first-leg win all but sealed their progression before they picked up a 2-1 victory in the away game to finish the job and book a tie with Girona in the final.
They were fighting from behind after a 2-1 defeat in the first leg, but goals from Alvaro Garcia and Oscar Trejo saw them defy the odds and overturn the deficit to make a return to the top flight after relegation in 2019.
Los Vallecanos new head into the new season with the overall aim of survival, as they look to establish themselves in La Liga in the long term, although the opening game presents a particularly tough test.
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Team News
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Sevilla only have a few selection concerns for the opening game, as forward Luuk De Jong and midfielder Oliver Torres are slight doubts through injury, while centre-back Diego Carlos only recently returned from the Olympic Games, having won the gold medal with the Brazil squad, and may be rested after a short pre-season.
Despite those absentees, Lopetegui's starting XI is fairly straightforward, with a largely settled squad.
Youssef En-Nesyri will lead the line, having hit 18 La Liga goals last season.
Despite ongoing likes away from the club, French centre-back Jules Kounde remains a Sevilla player for now, and he should start on Sunday.
Jose Pozo will likely remain out of action for Rayo Vallecano, after a long absence through injury.
Randy Nteka and Esteban Saveljich are also doubts for Sunday's opener, leaving Iraola with several decisions to make.
While they may lack a clear goalscorer, winger Isi Palazon did hit nine league goals last season alongside four assists, and he will be a key man going forward.
Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Bounou; Navas, Kounde, Carlos, Acuna; Rakitic, Fernando, Jordan; Suso, En-Nesyri, Ocampos
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Zidane; Balliu, Suarez, Catena, F Garcia; Valentin, Comesana; Palazon, Trejo, A Garcia; Qasmi
We say: Sevilla 2-0 Rayo Vallecano
Given their superior squad, Sevilla should brush the newly-promoted outfit aside on Sunday.
Lopetegui's men will have their sights set on the top four again this season, and a winning start will be important, especially with a tough schedule coming up.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 61.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 15.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.15%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sevilla would win this match.
