Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudtirol win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Modena had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudtirol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (10.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.