Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 1-0 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.