Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 52.72%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 22.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.