Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 36.65%. A win for Palermo had a probability of 35.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Palermo win was 1-0 (10.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ascoli would win this match.