Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 47.99%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.

Result
Modena	Draw	Perugia
47.99% ( 0.24)	25.07% ( -0.05)	26.94% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 53.33% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.43% (

0.09)

49.56% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.41% (

0.08)

71.59% (

-0.08)

Modena Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.31% (

0.13)

20.68% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.72% (

0.22)

53.27% (

-0.22)

Perugia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.23% (

-0.11)

32.76% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.67% (

-0.12)

69.32% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Modena 47.98%

Perugia 26.94%

Draw 25.07%

Modena	Draw	Perugia
1-0 @ 10.67% 2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.93% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.74% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.63% Total : 47.98%	1-1 @ 11.91% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.78% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.07%	0-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.65% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.52% Total : 26.94%