Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 61.12%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Cosenza Calcio had a probability of 16.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Cosenza Calcio win it was 0-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.