Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 54.4%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for SPAL had a probability of 20.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.11%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a SPAL win it was 0-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.