Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Cesena had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Cesena win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Catanzaro would win this match.