Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 37.31%. A win for Bari had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.71%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Bari win was 1-0 (11.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.