Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 43.76%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Modena had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.81%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.11%), while for a Modena win it was 0-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.