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Serie A | Gameweek 27
Mar 18, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Dacia Arena
Milan logo

Udinese
3 - 1
AC Milan

Pereyra (9'), Beto (45+6'), Ehizibue (70')
Perez (27'), Walace (68'), Becao (90+3'), Ebosele (90')
Sottil (45+3')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Ibrahimovic (45+4' pen.)
Kalulu (61'), Tonali (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Udinese and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Empoli 0-1 Udinese
Saturday, March 11 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: Udinese 1-2 AC Milan

While Milan have been below their best for some time now, they can get back to winning ways on Saturday evening, when their hosts will seek just a fourth home success of the season. This contest could go all the way to the wire, though, as only Napoli have scored more goals than either side (both 11) during the last 15 minutes of play. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 36.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Udinese would win this match.

Result
UdineseDrawAC Milan
37.58% (0.123 0.12) 25.61% (0.032 0.03) 36.8% (-0.153 -0.15)
Both teams to score 55.59% (-0.122 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.55% (-0.154 -0.15)48.45% (0.155 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.42% (-0.142 -0.14)70.58% (0.142 0.14)
Udinese Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.77% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)25.22% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.03% (-0.0059999999999931 -0.01)59.97% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.34% (-0.158 -0.16)25.66% (0.16 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.43% (-0.215 -0.22)60.56% (0.216 0.22)
Score Analysis
    Udinese 37.58%
    AC Milan 36.8%
    Draw 25.6%
UdineseDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 8.92% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 8.35% (0.013000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.14% (0.037999999999999 0.04)
3-1 @ 3.83% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 2.82% (0.017 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.61% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.32% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 0.97% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 37.58%
1-1 @ 12.12% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.47% (0.041 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.68% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.18% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.6%
0-1 @ 8.8% (0.016 0.02)
1-2 @ 8.25% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 5.99% (-0.015999999999999 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.74% (-0.027 -0.03)
0-3 @ 2.72% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.58% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.27% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-4 @ 0.92% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 36.8%

How you voted: Udinese vs AC Milan

Udinese
11.9%
Draw
20.8%
AC Milan
67.3%
101
Head to Head
Aug 13, 2022 5.30pm
AC Milan
4-2
Udinese
Hernandez (11' pen.), Rebic (15', 68'), Diaz (46')
Krunic (34')
Becao (2'), Masina (45+3')
Soppy (9'), Becao (34'), Perez (55'), Ebosele (90+1')
Feb 25, 2022 5.50pm
AC Milan
1-1
Udinese
Leao (29')
Rebic (68'), Leao (90+4')
Udogie (66')
Perez (17'), Becao (49'), Molina (73'), Success (77')
Dec 11, 2021 7.45pm
Udinese
1-1
AC Milan
Beto (17')
Perez (25'), Deulofeu (55')
Success (90+5')
Ibrahimovic (90+2')
Castillejo (87'), Florenzi (90+5')
Mar 3, 2021 7.45pm
AC Milan
1-1
Udinese
Kessie (90+7' pen.)
Rebic (24'), Hernandez (32'), Romagnoli (90+2'), Kessie (90+4')
Becao (68')
Zeegelaar (54')
Nov 1, 2020 11.30am
Udinese
1-2
AC Milan
De Paul (48' pen.)
Becao (24'), Arslan (39')
Kessie (18'), Ibrahimovic (83')
Hernandez (13'), Donnarumma (49')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Saturday, June 22
 
5pm
 
8pm
Sunday, June 23
 
8pm
 
8pm
Monday, June 24
 
8pm
 
8pm
Tuesday, June 25
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Saturday, June 29
Sunday, June 30
Monday, July 1
Tuesday, July 2
Friday, July 5
Saturday, July 6
Tuesday, July 9
Wednesday, July 10
Sunday, July 14
Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany22006
2 Switzerland Switzerland21104
3 Scotland flag Scotland20111
4 Hungary Hungary20020

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain22006
2 Italy Italy21013
3 Albania national flag Albania20111
4 Croatia Croatia20111

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 England flag England21104
2 Denmark Denmark20202
3 Slovenia Slovenia20202
4 Serbia Serbia20111

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Netherlands Netherlands21104
2 France France21104
3 Austria Austria21013
4 Poland Poland20020

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania11003
2 Ukraine Ukraine21013
3 Slovakia Slovakia21013
4 Belgium Belgium10010

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Turkey Turkey11003
2 Portugal Portugal11003
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic10010
4 Georgia Georgia10010


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