Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 34.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.