Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 45.51%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.07%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 1-2 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.