Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 53.95%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 21.27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.38%) and 1-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Lecce win it was 1-0 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.