Serie A Gameweek 4
Sep 12, 2026 5.00pm
Stadio Olimpico

Lazio vs AC Milan - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions
Last game
Sep 7, 2026 7.45pm
Udinese 1 - 2 Lazio
Goals scored
4
Top scorer
Davide Frattesi

AC Milan

All competitions
Last game
Sep 6, 2026 7.45pm
Juventus 1 - 1 AC Milan
Goals scored
5
Top scorer
Alphadjo Cissè

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a AC Milan win with a probability of 39.82%. A win for Lazio has a probability of 32.79% and a draw has a probability of 27.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a AC Milan win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Lazio win is 1-0 (9.02%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.48%).

Result

Lazio 32.79% (+1.72)
Draw 27.39% (+0.36)
AC Milan 39.82% (-2.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.65% (-0.97)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.99% (-0.63)
Under 1.5 27.01% (+0.63)
Over 2.5 48.35% (-0.97)
Under 2.5 51.65% (+0.97)
Over 3.5 27.03% (-1.15)
Under 3.5 72.97% (+1.16)
Over 4.5 14.72% (-0.89)
Under 4.5 85.28% (+0.90)

First Half Winner

Lazio 27.57% (+0.02)
Draw 47.57% (+0.65)
AC Milan 24.86% (-0.65)

Team To Score First

Lazio 47.19% (+3.07)
No Goal 8.17% (+0.25)
AC Milan 44.64% (-3.32)

Corners

Over 8 47.97% (+2.75)
Equal 8 12.39% (+0.22)
Under 8 39.64% (-2.94)
Over 9 36.28% (+2.29)
Equal 9 11.69% (+0.45)
Under 9 52.03% (-2.75)
Over 10.5 26.18% (+1.74)
Under 10.5 73.83% (-1.74)

Lazio Goals

Over 1.5 32.95% (+0.99)
Under 1.5 67.05% (-0.99)
Over 2.5 12.1% (+0.66)
Under 2.5 87.9% (-0.65)
Over 3.5 3.76% (+0.33)
Under 3.5 96.24% (-0.33)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5 71.59% (-1.50)
Under 0.5 28.41% (+1.50)
Over 1.5 38.74% (-2.15)
Under 1.5 61.26% (+2.15)
Over 2.5 16.2% (-1.74)
Under 2.5 83.8% (+1.74)
Over 3.5 5.56% (-0.73)
Under 3.5 94.44% (+0.72)

Score analysis

Lazio 32.79%
Draw 27.38%
AC Milan 39.82%
Lazio
1-0 @ 9.02% (+0.33)
2-1 @ 7.52% (+0.35)
2-0 @ 5.42% (+0.42)
3-1 @ 3.04% (+0.13)
3-0 @ 2.19% (+0.24)
3-2 @ 2% (-0.01)
Other @ 3.6% (+0.29)
Total : 32.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.48% (+0.13)
0-0 @ 8.17% (+0.25)
2-2 @ 5.46% (-0.04)
3-3 @ 1.11% (-0.04)
Other @ 0.16% (+0.05)
Total : 27.38%
AC Milan
0-1 @ 9.81% (+0.06)
1-2 @ 8.33% (-0.20)
0-2 @ 6.75% (-0.18)
1-3 @ 3.79% (-0.38)
0-3 @ 3.29% (-0.19)
2-3 @ 2.45% (-0.40)
Other @ 5.4% (-0.77)
Total : 39.82%

Head to Head

Serie A Gameweek 29
Mar 15, 2026 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Olimpico
  • Gustav Isaksen 26' goal
  • Boulaye Dia 67' yellowcard
  • Pedro 67' yellowcard
  • Pedro 68' yellowcard
  • Matteo Cancellieri 83' yellowcard
  • Reda Belahyane 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Zachary Athekame 57'
  • yellowcard Davide Bartesaghi 57'
  • yellowcard Davide Bartesaghi 58'
  • yellowcard Niclas Füllkrug 67'
  • yellowcard Christopher Nkunku 67'
  • yellowcard Samuele Ricci 84'
Coppa Italia
Dec 4, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Mattia Zaccagni 80' goal
  • yellowcard Strahinja Pavlovic 2'
  • yellowcard Koni De Winter 84'
Serie A European Under-21s Championship
Nov 29, 2025 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Fikayo Tomori 26' yellowcard
  • Rafael Leao 51' goal
  • Matteo Gabbia 64' yellowcard
  • Samuele Ricci 89' yellowcard
  • Massimiliano Allegri 90'+7' redcard
  • Massimiliano Allegri 90'+9' redcard
  • yellowcard Luca Pellegrini 57'
  • yellowcard Alessio Romagnoli 72'
  • yellowcard Mattia Zaccagni 90'+13'
  • yellowcard Mattia Zaccagni 90'+14'
Serie A Gameweek 27
Mar 2, 2025 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
  • Strahinja Pavlovic 67' redcard
  • Santiago Gimenez 76' yellowcard
  • Rafael Leao 80' yellowcard
  • Samuel Chukwueze 84' goal
  • goal Mattia Zaccagni 28'
  • yellowcard Matias Vecino 90'+2'
  • goal Pedro 90'+8'
Serie A Gameweek 3
Aug 31, 2024 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stadio Olimpico
  • Nicolo Rovella 39' yellowcard
  • Valentin Castellanos 62' goal
  • Mattia Zaccagni 64' yellowcard
  • Boulaye Dia 66' goal
  • Patric 85' yellowcard
  • Matteo Guendouzi 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Strahinja Pavlovic 8'
  • yellowcard Youssouf Fofana 20'
  • goal Rafael Leao 72'
  • yellowcard Filippo Terracciano 90'+1'
Serie A Gameweek 27
Mar 1, 2024 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Olimpico
  • Maurizio Sarri 22' yellowcard
  • Luca Pellegrini 50' yellowcard
  • Luca Pellegrini 57' redcard
  • Alessio Romagnoli 58' yellowcard
  • Ciro Immobile 76' yellowcard
  • Elseid Hysaj 90' yellowcard
  • Adam Marusic 90'+4' redcard
  • Matteo Guendouzi 90'+6' redcard
  • yellowcard Alessandro Florenzi 61'
  • yellowcard Yacine Adli 70'
  • goal Rafael Leao 76'
  • yellowcard Matteo Gabbia 80'
  • yellowcard Theo Hernandez 84'
  • goal Noah Okafor 88'
  • yellowcard Rafael Leao 90'+5'
  • yellowcard Christian Pulisic 90'+6'