Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elche win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elche win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Castellon win was 1-0 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Elche would win this match.