Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 27.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%).