Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Castellon win with a probability of 43.46%. A win for Mirandes had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Castellon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Mirandes win was 0-1 (9.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.