Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 51.45%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 18.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.81%), while for a Cartagena win it was 0-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirandes would win this match.