Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 46.23%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 24.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.