Celtic logo
Scottish Cup | Fourth Round
Jan 18, 2025 at 5.30pm UK
Celtic Park
Kilmarnock logo

Celtic
2 - 1
Kilmarnock

McGregor (12'), Maeda (71')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Wales (45+4')
Polworth (59'), McKenzie (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Scottish Cup clash between Celtic and Kilmarnock, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Celtic

All competitions
Last Game: Dundee 3-3 Celtic
Tuesday, January 14 at 8pm in Scottish Premiership

Kilmarnock

All competitions
Last Game: Kilmarnock 0-0 Motherwell
Wednesday, January 8 at 7.45pm in Scottish Premiership

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celtic win with a probability of 81.84%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 6.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Celtic win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (8.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.4%), while for a Kilmarnock win it was 1-2 (2.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Celtic would win this match.

Result
CelticDrawKilmarnock
81.84% (0.037999999999997 0.04)11.69% (-0.020999999999999 -0.02)6.47% (-0.0221 -0.02)
Both teams to score 50.17% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.86% (0.013999999999996 0.01)28.14% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.08% (0.018000000000001 0.02)48.92% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Celtic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.88% (0.007000000000005 0.01)5.12% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
79.65% (0.028000000000006 0.03)20.35% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Kilmarnock Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.88% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)47.12% (0.040999999999997 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.43% (-0.034000000000002 -0.03)82.57% (0.028999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Celtic 81.82%
    Kilmarnock 6.47%
    Draw 11.7%
CelticDrawKilmarnock
2-0 @ 10.65%
3-0 @ 10.55% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.02% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.94% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
4-0 @ 7.84% (0.012 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.17% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 5.9% (0.0020000000000007 0)
5-0 @ 4.66% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
5-1 @ 3.51% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-2 @ 2.99% (-0.004 -0)
6-0 @ 2.31% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-2 @ 2.22% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
6-1 @ 1.74% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-2 @ 1.32% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
7-0 @ 0.98% (0.003 0)
Other @ 4.03%
Total : 81.82%
1-1 @ 5.4% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.02% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 2.41% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 11.7%
1-2 @ 2.03% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-1 @ 1.82% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 6.47%

Head to Head
Nov 10, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 12
Kilmarnock
0-2
Celtic

Wright (11'), Donnelly (83'), Murray (88')
McGregor (45+4'), Kuhn (71')
Hatate (80'), Trusty (83'), Maeda (90')
> Preview
Aug 4, 2024 4.30pm
Gameweek 1
Celtic
4-0
Kilmarnock
Hatate (17'), Scales (40'), Kuhn (59'), Ralston (90+4')

Donnelly (70'), Lyons (84')
> Preview
May 15, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 37
Kilmarnock
0-5
Celtic

Donnelly (30'), Deas (49')
Idah (5'), Maeda (12'), Forrest (35'), O'Riley (51', 71')
> Match Report
Feb 17, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 26
Celtic
1-1
Kilmarnock
Furuhashi (32')
Watson (90+2')
Donnelly (21'), Mayo (38'), Armstrong (73')
> Preview
Dec 10, 2023 12pm
Gameweek 17
Kilmarnock
2-1
Celtic
Phillips (75' og.), Kennedy (87')
Lyons (41'), Deas (69'), Armstrong (79')
O'Riley (33')
Johnston (83')
> Preview