Ayr United
Scottish Cup | Fifth Round
Feb 7, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Somerset Park
Hibs logo

Ayr
0 - 1
Hibernian


McMann (48'), Oakley (77'), Rus (83')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Bushiri (86')
Triantis (2'), Cadden (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Scottish Cup clash between Ayr United and Hibernian, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ayr United

All competitions
Scottish Cup
Last Game: Hamilton 0-2 Ayr
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Scottish Championship

Hibernian

All competitions
Scottish Cup
Last Game: Hibernian 2-0 Aberdeen
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Hibernian had a probability of 33.33% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ayr United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Hibernian win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hibernian would win this match.

Result
Ayr UnitedDrawHibernian
40.63% (0.467 0.47)26.04% (0.193 0.19)33.33% (-0.655 -0.66)
Both teams to score 53.62% (-0.793 -0.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.26% (-0.95 -0.95)50.74% (0.956 0.96)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.36% (-0.844 -0.84)72.64% (0.84899999999999 0.85)
Ayr United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.35% (-0.18300000000001 -0.18)24.65% (0.187 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.84% (-0.26 -0.26)59.16% (0.264 0.26)
Hibernian Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.16% (-0.875 -0.88)28.84% (0.88 0.88)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.3% (-1.105 -1.11)64.7% (1.11 1.11)
Score Analysis
    Ayr United 40.63%
    Hibernian 33.33%
    Draw 26.03%
Ayr UnitedDrawHibernian
1-0 @ 9.95% (0.325 0.33)
2-1 @ 8.67% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.97% (0.191 0.19)
3-1 @ 4.05% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.25% (0.071 0.07)
3-2 @ 2.52% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-1 @ 1.42% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.14% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 40.63%
1-1 @ 12.37% (0.1 0.1)
0-0 @ 7.11% (0.269 0.27)
2-2 @ 5.39% (-0.117 -0.12)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.055 -0.06)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.03%
0-1 @ 8.84% (0.123 0.12)
1-2 @ 7.7% (-0.124 -0.12)
0-2 @ 5.5% (-0.058 -0.06)
1-3 @ 3.19% (-0.132 -0.13)
0-3 @ 2.28% (-0.081 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.23% (-0.105 -0.11)
1-4 @ 0.99% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 33.33%

How you voted: Ayr vs Hibernian

Ayr United
29.7%
Draw
2.7%
Hibernian
67.6%
37
Head to Head
Aug 8, 2017 7.45pm
Second round
Hibernian
5-0
Ayr
Stokes (20', 59'), Murray (31'), Ambrose (69'), Matulevicius (85')

Rose (49')
Apr 29, 2017 3pm
Ayr
0-4
Hibernian

Devlin (31'), Moore (84')
Cummings (27', 72'), Boyle (30'), Keatings (66')
Gray (43'), McGregor (67'), Forster (85')
Mar 4, 2017 3pm
Quarter-Finals
Hibernian
3-1
Ayr
McGinn (7'), Cummings (12' pen.), Keatings (79')
Forster (17')
McGuffie (33')
Harkins (42')
McKenna (45')
Feb 4, 2017 3pm
Hibernian
1-1
Ayr
Cummings (74')
Shinnie (45'), Keatings (80')
Crawford (4')
Adams (17'), Harkins (41')
Nov 5, 2016 3pm
Ayr
0-3
Hibernian

Adams (40'), Docherty (86')
Boyle (28', 77'), McGinn (84')
Fyvie (61'), Shinnie (67')