Two bottom-half sides aspiring for a change in fortunes in 2022 mark their return to Serie A at the Mapei Stadium – Citta del Tricolore on Thursday, as Sassuolo play host to Genoa.
Alessio Dionisi's men ended 2021 with a lowly 3-0 defeat to Bologna, while their visitors managed to hold Atalanta BC to a goalless stalemate.
Match preview
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Developing something of an affinity for 2-2 draws in the build-up to the festive period, Sassuolo's defence was once again exposed during the visit of Bologna, but a surprisingly toothless attack had no answer to their visitors' resolve in a 3-0 loss.
Riccardo Orsolini and Aaron Hickey put Bologna two goals to the good before the break, and with Dionisi's alterations failing to pay dividends, substitute Federico Santander put the result beyond any doubt in the fourth minute of second-half injury time.
Having only posted a paltry two wins from their last nine in the Italian top flight, Dionisi's leaky Sassuolo side enter 2022 13th in the standings - a healthy 13 points above the dotted line but eight below the European-challenging top six.
In keeping with the unlucky theme of 13, the dampening 3-0 home defeat to Bologna represented Sassuolo's 13th game on the bounce without a clean sheet and also marked the first time in over three months that I Neroverdi had failed to find the back of the net in a top-flight game.
Sassuolo had previously embarked on a respectable six-game unbeaten run in Serie A before the loss to Bologna - drawing four of them - and they will welcome the chance to kick off the new year against one of the division's basement boys.
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Andriy Shevchenko may have lit up Serie A with his goalscoring touch during his playing days, but there was no such ruthlessness on show during Genoa's clash with Atalanta, as the two sides cancelled each other out in a goalless draw.
That result has done little to aid Genoa's prospects of climbing above the dreaded dotted line, but preventing Gian Piero Gasperini's side from finding the back of the net is an achievement in itself, even though La Dea had 14 attempts compared to one for Shevchenko's side.
A point against the title outsiders has at least given Genoa something to build on for 2022, but with their winless run in the top flight now standing at a miserable 16 matches, this week's visitors begin the new year 18th in the table and five points adrift of safety.
A narrow Coppa Italia win over Salernitana was all that Il Grifone had to cheer during the autumn and winter months, but their only victory of the 2021-22 Serie A season so far did come away from home against Cagliari, and they are no stranger to sharing the points on the road either - drawing three of their last five such games.
Ironically, Genoa managed to hold Sassuolo to a 2-2 draw back in October, but the hosts have only ever lost one home game versus Il Grifone and have won this fixture three times on the bounce on familiar territory.
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Team News
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Sassuolo will be without Jeremie Boga and Hamed Traore while the Ivory Coast compete at the Africa Cup of Nations, although both men were hooked early in the defeat to Bologna anyway.
Edoardo Goldaniga - supposedly on the verge of a move to Cagliari - has tested positive for COVID-19, while Filip Djuricic will most likely lose his battle to be fit for this game.
Giacomo Raspadori and Abdou Harroui will hope to take advantage of Boga and Traore's absences here, and Jeremy Toljan will expect to return at right-back over Mert Muldur.
As for Genoa, coach Shevchenko is out with COVID-19 alongside captain Domenico Criscito and young defender Laurens Serpe, while Stefano Sturaro is suspended.
Felipe Caicedo, Nicolo Rovella, Mohamed Fares and Zinho Vanheusden are also sidelined for the depleted visitors, who should call upon Abdoulaye Toure to deputise for Sturaro.
Paolo Ghiglione may also return to the wide areas in the absence of captain Criscito, while Caleb Ekuban is set to make way for the veteran Goran Pandev up top.
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Toljan, Chiriches, Ferrari, Rogerio; Harroui, Lopez, Frattesi; Berardi, Scamacca, Raspadori
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Biraschi, Masiello, Vazquez; Ghiglione, Badelj, Toure, Portanova, Cambiaso; Pandev, Destro
We say: Sassuolo 2-0 Genoa
After drawing a rare blank to round off a topsy-turvy 2020, Sassuolo ought to return to winning ways against a team whose dictionary does not seem to include the word win.
The visitors deserve credit for stunting the normally irrepressible Atalanta frontline but have not been fortunate on the absentee front, so a fired-up Sassuolo will expect to break the Grifone resistance on home soil.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 58.28%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 19.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
