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Brasileiro | Gameweek 17
Aug 23, 2021 at 12.30am UK
 
Sao Paulo

Sport
0 - 1
Sao Paulo


Andre (73'), Moccelin (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Pablo (5')
Liziero (43'), Pele (85')

Preview: Sport Recife vs. Sao Paulo - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Sport Recife and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Sao Paulo will be seeking their third successive Brasileiro victory when they travel to Sport Recife on Monday.

The hosts, meanwhile, are hoping for an upturn in form on home soil, after claiming just one win from their six league games at the Estadio Ilha do Retiro so far this campaign.


Match preview

Sport Recife manager Umberto Louzer on May 31, 2021© Reuters

Sport Recife's mini revival of four games unbeaten came to an end last weekend when they lost 2-0 away at Brasileiro holders Flamengo.

The Leao have now failed to score in nine of their 16 league matches so far this term and remain in the relegation zone, two points adrift of safety.

In addition, Recife have scored the fewest goals in this year's Brasileiro, finding the net just eight times. They have, however, kept the joint-second most clean sheets with seven, and only league leaders Atletico Mineiro (11) have conceded fewer goals than Umberto Louzer's side (13).

Their form in front of goal needs to improve, particularly against Monday's opponents Sao Paulo, who they have failed to score against in five of their last six meetings.

As the bottom half of the Brasileiro is tightly packed, with just six points separating eighth and 18th place, Louzer will not be too concerned at the moment and a victory at the weekend would see Recife climb out of the bottom four.

Sao Paulo's Luan celebrates scoring their first goal against Palmeiras, pictured on August 10, 2021© Reuters

Just three weeks ago, Sao Paulo were in 17th place – where Sport Recife are currently positioned – however successive league wins against Athletico Paranaense and Gremio has seen them climb out of the relegation zone, with a dramatic stoppage-time strike against the latter sealing all three points last weekend.

After two brilliant free kicks were scored by Victor Bueno and Vanderson in the first 20 minutes, the scores were level until the 93rd minute when Igor Gomes's close-range volley helped the hosts to claim just their fourth league win of the campaign.

Since that victory, Hernan Crespo's men were eliminated in the quarter-finals of the Copa Libertadores by Brazilian rivals and holders Palmeiras, losing 3-0 in the second leg and 4-1 on aggregate.

The Tricolor Paulista can now focus fully on their domestic campaign and with their next four league fixtures against sides in the bottom half of the table, they will fancy their chances of putting a good run of form together to climb further away from the drop zone.

Sao Paulo have won five and drawn four of their last nine meetings against Sport Recife, including two narrow 1-0 victories against them last season. Another win on Monday could see them move six points clear of the bottom four and into the top half of the table.

Sport Recife Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Sao Paulo form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L


Team News

Sao Paulo's Gabriel Sara celebrates scoring their second goal with Martin Benitez on June 23, 2021© Reuters

Sport Recife trio Everaldo, Betinho and Leandro Barcia are all ruled out with knee injuries, while Andre, Neilton and Joao Igor are also unavailable with ankle problems.

Club captain and defensive midfielder Marcao surprisingly started the last game as centre-back ahead of Rafael Thyere, who had started every league game prior to last weekend, though the latter with be hoping to force his way back into the first XI on Monday.

Mikael, who have scored only one league goal so far this season, is expected to lead the line in attack, and he could be supported on the flanks by Paulinho and Gustavo.

As for Sao Paulo, Walace and Luciano are ruled out with knee injuries, while William da Silva and Marquinhos are suffering with thigh problems.

Martin Benitez is back from serving a domestic one-match suspension and is in contention to feature in the number 10 role ahead of either Gomes or Gabriel Sara.

Dani Alves, Robert Arboleda, Leo, Rodrigo Nestor and Pablo all sat out of the last league game against Gremio, as they were rested for the second leg of their Copa Libertadores tie, but all five players are expected to be in contention to start against Recife.

Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Hayner, Thyere, Sabino, Chico; Ze Welison, Marcao; Gustavo, Hernanes, Paulinho; Mikael

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Dani Alves, Miranda, Arboleda, Leo; Liziero, Nestor; Rigoni, Gomes, Sara; Pablo


SM words green background

We say: Sport Recife 0-1 Sao Paulo

As strong as they have been defensively, Sport Recife desperately need to find their form in front of goal if they are to have any chance of claiming all three points.

The hosts have struggled in recent years against Sao Paulo and we feel that they may suffer another narrow defeat on Monday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



ID:460120:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect11209:
Written by
Oliver Thomas

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 31.23% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 1-0 (10.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sao Paulo in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Sport vs Sao Paulo

Sport Recife
11.1%
Draw
33.3%
Sao Paulo
55.6%
9
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