Juventude can virtually secure their place back into the top-flight next season with a win on Monday at Cicero Pompeu de Toledo Stadium against Sao Paulo.
A victory for Tricolor Paulista would guarantee they avoid relegation as they sit in 14th place, five points above that line, while Juve dropped a 1-0 decision to Fortaleza on Friday but could move as high as 12th with a victory.
Match preview
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It looks as though they will survive a wild ride in Serie A this year, but there is a lot of work to do for the mighty Sao Paulo to re-establish themselves as a dominant club in Brazil.
Thursday was perhaps the worst road game that this side have played since Rogerio Ceni took over as manager, firing only one targeted effort and dropping a 3-0 decision to Gremio, a side who look to be on their way down into the second tier of Brazilian football.
They return to their home field, having lost only one of their last 12 league fixtures at Cicero Pompeu de Toledo Stadium, and conceding in only one of their previous five matches played there, so they will fancy their chances of getting back to winning ways.
When conceding first, this team are at their worst, having not won all year domestically when faced with the scenario of having to chase a game.
Ceni mysteriously chose to overload the midfield to cut off the space Gremio might have in transition, but that tactic backfired as Sao Paulo conceded eight shots on target and fell 3-0 after having gone unbeaten in three straight fixtures under a 4-4-2 setup.
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Their return to the top flight has seen them hover near the bottom of the table for most of the campaign, though Juventude are in a good position to remain in Serie A next year, with a three-point cushion above the relegation line and only two matches remaining.
Under Jair Ventura, this team have defended well and kept their games close, although fatigue can sometimes set in for them when they spend so much time in their own end of the field, as they did against Fortaleza, conceding the winning goal with less than eight minutes remaining in the second half.
They come into this encounter having won only one of their previous 11 road fixtures, with that one victory coming against the last-place team, Chapecoense.
Should Juve survive relegation, they will want to bring in a quality playmaker who can provide more openings for their attack as they have only scored multiple goals in two of their last nine games.
When the pressure begins to mount late in a match, this team appear to become unravelled as evidenced in their clash with Atletico Mineiro last month when it looked as though they were about to hold Galo off the scoresheet and claim a valuable road point, only to concede twice in the final 20 minutes of play.
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Team News
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After going three straight matches without allowing a goal, Tiago Volpi conceded three times on Thursday, although the midfield five of Welington, Martin Benitez, Igor Gomes, Rodrigo Nestor and Emiliano Rigoni made it far too easy for Gremio to enter into their defensive zone as Volpi faced eight shots on target.
There were a few changes made to the Sao Paulo starting 11 as Leo replaced Igor Vinicius at right-back, Gabriel Sara moved from midfield to left-back as Reinaldo sat out, while Welington and Benitez were inserted in the middle of the field and Vitor Bueno was on the bench.
Ricardo Bueno has seven goals for Juventude domestically this year, and he scored the equaliser in their draw with Sao Paulo in late August.
Juve went with the same starting 11 on Friday as they had in their previous encounter though Dawhan and William Matheus swapped places with the 25-year-old moving into defence as they went with a back three.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Leo, Arboleda, Miranda, Vinicius; Sara, Liziero, Neves, Gomes; Rigoni, Calleri
Juventude possible starting lineup:
Friedrich; Macedo, Forster, Mendes, Matheus; Jadson, Dawhan, Castilho, Ricardinho; Wescley, Bueno
We say: Sao Paulo 1-1 Juventude
Both sides have been hot and cold in recent weeks as they both tend to do just enough to win once in a while, so we expect that both sides would be content with a point, knowing that it would keep each of them above the relegation line heading into the final round of matches next Thursday.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 63.07%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 13.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.05%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
